Nigeria
has one of the lowest foreign-exchange reserves, among the 12-member
Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), highlighting the
challenge before the Central Bank (CBN), as it struggles to defend the naira
amid falling oil prices.
FX
reserves in Africa’s largest economy are low both in absolute terms and as a
percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
Nigeria’s
$36.5 billion in gross FX reserves is only equivalent to 7 percent of its 2013
economic output of $520 billion.
This
compares with
Qatar, Kuwait, UAE and Saudi Arabia whose respective FX reserves
of $43 billion, $30 billion, $78 billion and $739 billion, were equivalent 21.2
percent, 16.2 percent, 21.7 percent and 99 percent of GDP, analysis show.
“If
the Central Bank finds itself in the position where it is drawing on FX
reserves…and needs to defend the naira in a low oil environment, there is a
risk that it may be forced to loosen its hold on the naira, implying further
currency weakness,” said Yvonne Mhango, Renaissance Capital SSA economist, in a
Dec 01 note.
Nigeria
is in bad company with OPEC member Venezuela, whose ratios (FX reserves of
$21.5 billion equivalent to 4.9 percent of GDP) are worse.
Both
countries budgets and currencies are being pressured by the drop in crude
prices.
Other
OPEC members such as Algeria, Libya, Iraq and Iran had FX reserves of $183
billion, $100 billion, $80 billion, and $109 billion, equivalent to 87 percent,
133 percent, 36 percent and 29.6 percent of GDP respectively.
OPEC
kept its output ceiling unchanged in its last meeting in November, pushing oil
prices to five-year lows.
Brent
crude was poised for the lowest close in more than five years on Friday, as
Saudi Arabia offered customers in Asia the biggest discount on record for its
crude.
Brent
for January settlement slid as much as 74 cents to $68.90 a barrel on the
London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.
The
CBN devalued the currency 8 percent by moving the naira’s official peg to a
midpoint of N168 per dollar, from N155, and widened its trading band to 5
percent from a previous 3 percent.
The
naira traded below the Central Bank’s new target band at N180.10 to the dollar,
on Friday, data from the FMDQ show.
Nigeria
has been unable to boost its foreign currency reserves during four years of
high oil prices, raising questions about the CBN and the fiscal authority’s
ability to weather the current storm.
“The
question is how the authorities will cope with an oil price below $ 100/bbl
when they could not accumulate oil savings in a much more favourable context,”
Samir Gadio, Head of Standard Chartered Bank’s Africa Strategy and FICC
Research, said.
BusinessDay’s
analysis show that Nigeria is ranked 10th among OPEC members in terms of FX
reserves as percentage of GDP and 8th in overall reserve size.
Nigerian
assets have sold off as investors fret over the ability of the CBN to manage
the naira volatility.
The
benchmark stock market index is down -19.73 percent this year and barely
staying above bear market territory.
Yields
on Nigeria’s dollar July 2023 bond climbed 36 basis points to 6.11 percent last
Monday, the highest on a closing basis since March 25, according to Bloomberg
data.
Nigeria
gets 95 percent of its dollar earnings and up to 80 percent of the Federal
Budget from oil sales.
The
Finance ministry lowered its budgeted oil price for a second time in less than
a month, a sign that government revenue is set to fall next year.
The
medium-term budget plan for 2015 to 2017 will be based on an oil price of $65 a
barrel, the Finance Ministry said on Thursday.
Businessday
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