Friday, 22 August 2014

Africa Forex: Importers to put pressure on some East African currencies next week

Importers in Kenya and Tanzania are expected to keep the local currencies under pressure next week, while low demand for the dollar in Uganda should support the country’s shilling.
KENYA
Kenya’s shilling is likely to weaken due to rising month-end demand for dollars against a trickle of greenbacks into the market, traders said.
By 1230 GMT market on Thursday, commercial banks quoted the shilling at 88.30 to the dollar, down from last Thursday’s close of 88.05.
“It looks like the shilling is going to weaken with end-of-month payments of imports by the oil and manufacturing sectors,” said Sheikh Mehran, head of trading for I&M bank.
Kenya’s currency has
weakened for the past two weeks as banks started buying the dollar on signs that a domestic funding crunch was easing. However, some analysts say the problem has not gone away.
Mehran said inflows of dollars would be limited, with the tea, tourism sectors beset by dwindling earnings.
Kenya’s tea exports have fetched lower prices all year due to over-production, while its tourism business slid into crisis because of frequent deadly attacks blamed on Islamists from neighbouring Somalia.
Worries over the industry’s performance have grown due to the Ebola outbreak in west Africa that has caused at least one airline, Korean Airlines, to suspend its flights to Kenya, even though the east African hub itself has not seen any cases.
TANZANIA
Commercial banks in east Africa’s second-biggest economy quoted the shilling at 1,665/1,675 to the dollar on Thursday, weaker than 1,660/1,670 a week ago.
“The shilling has been weakening over the past week and is expected to continue depreciating in the coming week,” said Hakim Sheikh, a dealer at Commercial Bank of Africa, Tanzania.
“The shilling is under pressure because of the easing of the liquidity squeeze on the local currency, which has ushered in a rise of demand for dollars from oil and construction sectors.”
The Bank of Tanzania said on its website it traded $55.5 million on the interbank foreign exchange market over the past week.
UGANDA
Month-end dollar inflows during a period of low corporate demand should lend some support to Uganda’s shilling next week, traders said.
At 1123 GMT commercial banks quoted the shilling at 2,600, slightly firmer than last Thursday’s close of 2,605.
“I suspect the shilling will be stuck in 2,600-2,615 range since not much is happening on the demand side. But as we eye month-end inflows the bias will be on the appreciation side,” said Benon Okwenje, trader at Stanbic Bank.
Month end flows normally come in from charities converting dollars to pay salaries.
The shilling has strengthened in recent days, underpinned by weak demand from private firms and attractive government bond yields. The unit is also seen stronger after a court overturned an anti-gay law that drew Western criticism and halted aid payments.

Businessday

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