South Africa to miss 2014 GDP growth target

South Africa will probably miss this year’s economic growth target of 2.7 percent, with a five-month mining strike hurting everything from government revenue to exports, Nhlanhla Nene, its finance minister, said.

The economic outlook “has moderated,” Nene told reporters Tuesday in the capital, Pretoria.

Recent forecasts by the IMF and others show “the economy is not going to grow as fast as we had anticipated,” he said.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracted an annualised 0.6 percent in the first three months of the year, as mining output dropped 25 percent, the most in

almost half a century.

The economy is at risk of shrinking again as about 220,000 metalworkers began an indefinite strike over pay this week.

The mining strike that ended last week “had a significant impact on the economy,” Nene said. “It’s going to take a bit of time for the economy to return to its pre-strike performance.”

Standard & Poor’s cut South Africa’s credit rating to one level above junk on June 13, citing concerns that the government’s finances may be harmed as growth slows. Fitch Ratings reduced its outlook on the nation’s creditworthiness to negative from stable on the same day.

The government has pledged to narrow the budget deficit to 2.8 percent of GDP in three years’ time from 4 percent in the fiscal year that ended in March. President Jacob Zuma pledged in his state-of-the-nation speech last month to grow the economy at 5 percent by 2019.

In a separate speech, Nene said the current-account deficit has remained “stubbornly high” even as the rand weakened and the economy contracted.

The gap on the current account , the broadest measure of trade in goods and services, narrowed to 4.5 percent of gross domestic product in the first quarter, the central bank said on June 18.

The rand fell 0.1 percent against the dollar to 10.6465 against the dollar Tuesday, taking its decline this year to 1.5 percent.

Economic policy in Africa’s second-largest economy is focused on implementing a 20-year National Development Plan that seeks to cut the jobless rate to 14 percent by 2020 from 25 percent.

“It is driven at the highest level and it is given priority in our planning,” Nene said. “I would have no reason to doubt the commitment and the resolve of government to implement the NDP.”

BusinessDay